Thursday Night Football breakdown: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans
Here we are. Tonight’s the final Thursday night game of the season, and what a ride it’s been. I’m excited as we still have meaningful football to be played this late into the season. Half of the divisions aren’t even secured! However, and I’ve said this before, I feel like the schedule makers did us a solid.
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It’s fantasy championship week for most leagues, and most fantasy managers are looking for easy roster decisions. Well, it doesn’t get much simpler than what we’ve got on tap tonight. The fantasy options are clear as the Cowboys, who are on the rise, travel to Nashville to take on a struggling Titans team.
The Cowboys are on their way to the playoffs, while the Titans focus on Week 18
The Cowboys offense is one of the top in the league. They are currently first in passing touchdowns (19) as well as second in rushing scores (13) since their bye week. There aren’t many other teams who can boast a similar level of productivity and balance.
It all comes together at Dak Prescott:
Prescott’s Week 7 return has seen him rank third in EPA per game and fourth in CPOE. Dallas fans may struggle to accept the completion percentage after Prescott’s fifth consecutive interception on Saturday. This follows two consecutive outings that saw him throw a pick-six. However, the Cowboys biggest problem is their inability to pass the ball.
Through Prescott’s five-game pick stretch, CeeDee Lamb On one of those throws, he was the target. However, the team’s reliance on ancillary options like Noah Brown Now! T.Y. Hilton Prescott’s best and worst (as shown above) have been brought out. Playoff defenses may be able to attack this weakness, but there aren’t any concerns for their aerial attack tonight.
Lamb is eighth in YPRR during the last month and he has a seven target lead over Dalton Schultz, who’s next in line at 24 looks from Prescott. Dallas remains at a -5% PROE. There are other options. Michael Gallup You fall under the low-end FLEX category. I’ll dig into the running game shortly, but let’s look at the Titans’ offense to see if there’s any interest from a fantasy standpoint.
I’ll start with something positive before diving into the details. Although the offense might seem harsh, at least it is not overwhelming. Malik Willis’ game is working out.
Willis has fifteen designed rushes in his three starts. Three of them resulted in explosive runs. He’s had a success rate (ratio of positive EPA runs versus negative) of 56.0 percent of his carries and has more missed tackles than Ryan Tannehill. His development as a passer is still far from complete.
With Willis at the center, the Titans offense averaged 23.7 yards per driving. The Texans are dead last in the leagueThis averages out to 25.7 YPD. Tennessee’s passing rate plummeted from a -6% PROE (through their previous four games) to -24%, and Willis was still bottom-eight in CPOE. Derrick Henry is expected to miss the game, putting at least one Titans’ running back in the fantasy spotlight. Tennessee is a team you should avoid if you want to win a fantasy title, however, there are so many unknowns at quarterback.
Points of interest in TNF
“Ezekiel Pollard” — A frustrating 1-2 duo
I could hear the screams of fantasy managers who had rostered Tony Pollard Through my TV after the play:
It was like Pollard juking defenders and then firing himself up the middle to get to the one-yard line didn’t even happen. Ezekiel Elliott capped a top-notch drive, but the touchdown should’ve gone to Pollard.
But vulturing short touchdowns has been Elliott’s thing this season.
Jamaal Williams In 2022, the league’s leader in short-yardage scores is Elliott (7). But Elliott (7) isn’t too far behind. These 42 fantasy points account for 24.0% in total PPR league production. However, even with the tandem sharing the touches, it’s not like both haven’t been productive.
Let’s not forget that the Cowboys are still a run-first offense. Since their Week 9 bye, they’re 22nd in early-down passing rate in neutral situations. And Pollard’s lacking rushing opportunity is offset by his red-zone looks. He’s sixth in targets from within the 10-yard line among all running backs. We can count on Dallas to score the second most points per game in this league over the past three weeks.
Dallas has all the ingredients to become one of the best NFL teams. Their defense can be very strong when they are healthy. However, their offense can outperform you in the air and on ground. So, it’s not a cop-out to say I’m looking to see BOTH Elliott and Pollard succeed tonight.
Dallas must have a strong (Pollard) and dynamic (Elliott), running game if they want to make deep playoff runs.
Hassan Haskins, Come on Down?
Let’s start here. Henry missed Monday practice, but was able to participate in a brief session Tuesday. His relative health is showing a positive trend. The Titans are still a 10.5 point home underdog and a win against Jacksonville is possible in Week 18. all they need to secure a playoff spot. I can follow this logic trail to its logical conclusion, where Henry “is available,” but we see more of his backfield mates throughout the game. If that scenario plays out, we’ll get a good look at Hassan Haskins in prime time.
Although Haskins had nine carries in Week 2, six of his touches were in the fourth quarter in their loss to the Bills. The rookie still has some positive lessons to learn, even in this context. He was the only running back who had at least one touch, and he posted a 55.6% success percentage for the day. Haskins also participated in the passing game, which was continued into Week 16, despite the loss of the quarterback.
I’m interested to see how Haskins performs as the main rusher with Tennessee (potentially) looking to the future. Haskins has worked well in pass-protection situations He was a strong runner in a limited amount of running (3.27 miles after contact). Julius Chestnut would work in on early downs, but I’d expect to see more of Haskins throughout the game if the team does indeed decide to rest Henry.
One Up, One down
This section will be familiar to you. I’m trying to find a player from each squad to start or sit. And I’m betting you could go off vibes alone to identify the team I’m trying to avoid. The Titans have a 15-point team total, so I’m sure folks still alive in the playoffs have better options. But, just in case, let’s walk through a couple of mid-range players worth mentioning.
Dalton Schultz
This section would focus on Gallup if we were in Week 12 of the season or earlier. You’ve seen me stick my neck out for high-risk players (e.g., Zay Jones, Mack Hollins, Rashod BatemanThis is for the championship. So I’m balancing floor and ceiling, and Dalton Schultz fits the bill.
Over the last three weeks, Schultz has run a route on 87.5% of Prescott’s dropbacks, and he is second in targets (tied with Pollard at 18). While a 10-target run buoys his total volume, his floor has only been four over the past two games. Schultz has also had the third most red-zone targets since Week 11 giving him top-12 upside. He also has the advantage of a matchup.
In Tennessee’s last two games, their tight ends have averaged 68.5 yards per target. That was almost forgotten. Evan Engram In Week 14, they were trucked for 162 yard and two scores. Dallas has better receiving options than Jacksonville, so we can’t expect the same production level. Schultz is a top target for TNF because of the matchup.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
I’m not trying to disparage all tight ends, but other than Henry, Chigoziem Okonkwo Was the most likely Titan fantasy manager to be rostering. The rookie tight end with Willis at center has less chance of making explosive plays which makes him fantasy relevant. He also has more competition.
Last week was Treylon Burks’ first game back after missing the previous two weeks due to a concussion. With him back in the lineup, Okonkwo’s routes and targets slid back to his usage rates of nearly a month ago. That’s not the trend that you want to see with a Dallas matchup.
The Cowboys are ranked ninth schedule-adjusted fantasy points Allowed to keep tight ends. I mean, sure. We just watched Dallas Goedert They ran for 67 yards, and Engram tied them for 62 yards with ten targets in Week 15. Okonkwo can still be productive. These guys are not guilty of passing offenses. Tennessee had a PROE of -24% last week. Without a semblance of a floor, I wouldn’t want to “get Chiggy with it” in my final match of the fantasy season.