Things could turn ugly in Week 18. Here are 2 wagers that are worth taking the chance
Quarterbacks have the ability to make a difference more than any other position. However, injuries to clusters of players can have an impact. However, if we notice a sudden swing in the market it is almost always followed up by news about a quarterback’s play status or whether a team has decided to rest its starters. The latter is a common feature of Week 18. It allows bettors the opportunity to decide if they would like to take the points against one of league’s worst teams.
Instead of playing the guessing game, i prefer to pay attention to the quarterback changes and see if I can get an edge based upon the market’s reaction. Two of the most important swaps at quarterback occurred with the Washington Commanders, and the Chicago Bears. Sam Howell, the rookie quarterback for the Commanders, has been given his first game. Justin Fields will be in Chicago and give Nathan Peterman a very limited offense.
My approach was to focus on both the team totals markets for both games. However, I tried different angles.
Sam Howell has a chance to prove that he is the long-term answer. A QB who plays with house money can be dangerous. The North Carolina rookie is athletic enough to purchase time against Dallas’ relentless pass rush. And the Commanders are equipped with the weapons to defeat Dallas’ secondary. Dallas has ranked 26th and 23rd respectively in dropback success rates and EPA per dropped back in non-garbage times situations over the past five weeks. Howell’s determination and aggression will prove to be a double-edged sword. He will produce both impressive drives as well as bad interceptions. However, he will also get the ball in the hands of the Commanders playmakers. If Dallas is looking to build a large lead, there’s a possibility that Dallas might take their foot off of the pedal in the second half.
Washington is valuable even when Wentz isn’t on the field. Washington was able to surpass 16.5 points eight times in the nine games played without Wentz. I bet Howell is a rookie, but he keeps firing until the win.
Nathan Peterman was a name we all wanted to see go, but it is not easy to put your money on Minnesota’s defense. Sunday isn’t the best day to invest in the Vikings defense. The Vikings allowed 486 yards and 33 points in one quarter to the Colts. So it was sensible to take a pivot and place a bet in Minnesota on the more reliable side. Because the Bears are more concerned about the future than the current game, they won’t be too aggressive on either end of the ball.
Justin Fields is the only player that can truly make Chicago an offense. What is the impact of an inefficient Bears offense on your team? The Vikings have great field position and scoring options.
Minnesota is in dire need of positive momentum as they head into the playoffs. The Bears seem willing to provide it. Chicago has allowed more than 450 yards per week in the last three weeks. More importantly, they lack the pass rush necessary to exploit Minnesota’s shaky offensive line. The Bears have 20 sacks this season, which is the lowest in the NFL. Cousins is expected to be in a clean pocket and with short field work, so they can lighten up the scoreboard when they have a big offensive day. Minnesota is more motivated than the other team. The team will feel the pressure from its defense, which will make it harder to maintain its momentum.
Stats provided by teamrankings and rbsdm.