NHL: 10 Insights & Observations

Welcome to 10 Insights, Observations. Every Thursday, I’ll use this space to highlight teams, players, storylines, and general musings around the NHL.

This week, we will be discussing Patrick Kane’s importance to contenders, scoring leaders who do not make the playoffs and 3-on-3 overtime strategy. We also discuss the World Juniors, Alexis Lafreniere, and many other topics.

High scorers at risk of missing the playoffs

Three of the four top scorers in the league (Connor McDavid Leon Draisaitl, Tage Thompson) would not be making the playoffs as of today’s writing. This has never happened since the post-lockout era. It’s not completely unheard of for something like this to happen, though. The Tampa Bay Lightning was the fifth, sixth, or seventh-leading scorers in league scoring during the 2009-10 season. They still missed the playoffs. Jamie Benn was the league’s top scorer in 2014-15, but he missed the playoffs as well as Jakub Voracek, who was fifth in scoring. The 2018-19 season might have been the closest. Connor McDavid (Patrick Kane) and Leon Draisaitl were 2-3-4 in league scoring. All three missed the playoffs. J.T Miller was last season’s only top-10 scorer and made it to the playoffs. (He was nineth).

McDavid not even closer to the Stanley Cup

There is still plenty of time left in the regular season — over half the season — so I’m not about to count out the Oilers by any means. McDavid would be missing the playoffs for the fourth time if they fail to qualify. He finished second and first in league scoring during his rookie season. Barring injury, he’s easily in position to lead the league in scoring yet again — he’s already 10 points up on the second leading scorer, teammate Leon Draisaitl.

If there’s some modern day hope to be found here, perhaps it’s in Steven Stamkos. His rookie season saw him finish fifth in scoring, miss the playoffs, then he made it to Conference Finals, where he was second in scoring, but missed the playoffs. He scored 60 goals in that season. He was second in scoring, but missed out on the playoffs the next season. His teammate Martin St. Louis, who led the league in scoring, was also second. Tampa Bay made it to the playoffs the next season, even though St. Louis was traded at the deadline. The Rangers went to the Stanley Cup Final with him that season and were quickly swept by Montreal Canadiens.

It’s obviously not a perfect comparison — Stamkos made it to the Cup final in his seventh season, while McDavid is fresh off his seventh campaign, in which he made it as far as the conference finals. These two stars were both a huge part of the league’s early success, and their teams struggled in the playoffs.

In overtime, coaches prefer to be cautious than chaotic

It was chaotic when 3-on-3 overtime was first introduced. It was chaotic, which made it crazy fun. It was back and forth, with teams trading 2-on-1s and breaking away until one of them won. Less games going to shootouts and ending in a more “game-like” situation. The NHL saw 102 shootouts last season. This accounts for less that 8% of the total. Before 3-on-3, nearly 14 percent of all games ended in a shootout. It has worked.

However, coaches have had a significant impact on how exciting overtime is. It is safe to say that they have made overtime less exciting than was expected. It’s no longer pond hockey. The teams control possession. They lap the zone, hang around the perimeter, and they will actively leave with the puck the offensive zone, skating outside of the blue line to keep possession. This is in order to avoid losing possession, or risking a turnover that leads to an odd-man rush the other direction. The 3-on-3 hockey is wide open, position-less hockey catered to offensive players — yet 10 of the top 15 leaders in overtime ice time are defensemen (even if they are generally skilled, offensive defensemen).

Many teams are opening faceoffs now with at least one checker, in case they lose. The Leafs are using David Kampf now to start overtime periods — defending first instead of blitzing an attack. They were defeated in overtime by Tampa Bay, where Alex Killorn was chosen over a variety of offensive stars (Killorn won the game). Red Wings started overtime. Michael Rasmussen won the opening draw. Last week, the Flames began Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev in an overtime match against the Kings. This month’s overtime saw the Islanders and Bruins play Jean-Gabriel Pageau against Zach Parise, Noah Dobson and Jake DeBrusk. While we are not seeing many games go to shootouts, 3-on-3 is evolving. Coaches try to keep it simple from the beginning.

Josi and Predators come crashing back to Earth

Roman Josi’s 2021-22 96-point scoring season was impossible to match. When you are that productive, and start the following season with a more modest 26 points in 33 games, it’s met with some disappointment. Interestingly though, he’s shooting more than he ever has. He averaged 3.51 net shots per game during his career and was the leader among defensemen with 281 net shots. He averages 4.3 net shots per game this season. And go figure, he’s shooting a career low percentage (perhaps throwing just a bit too much junk at the net in the process), but to put things in perspective, he’s pacing for his third highest scoring season of his career.

When you have such a huge year, expectations can be high. It doesn’t help that the rest of the talent around him has also cooled off — Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg both had career seasons as well. Tanner Jeannot had a big 24-goal season — he has three goals through 33 games this season. As a team, they scored 3.2 goals per game last season — 13th in the league. This season? This ranks 30th in goals per match at 2.48. It was always going to be difficult to match your top three players having career seasons — Forsberg is the youngest of the three at 28 — but the offense has completely crashed. Josi has been launching more goals than ever.

Lafreniere is proving too difficult for Rangers

The Rangers were lucky to win the draft lottery in 2020. This saw them go from 11th place with the best odds to be the top pick. Alexis Lafreniere was the consensus top player of the day. He had just finished a huge season in the QMJHL, and had played for the World Juniors. He was already 6’1″ and weighed in at nearly 200 pounds, and was a product that was NHL-ready.

However, it hasn’t worked out as planned. It was announced that he would be a healthy scratch for Thursday’s game against the Lightning. That’s sure to perk up the ears of opposing teams. His rookie season was a COVID bubble year. It was difficult circumstances for anyone, but it was even more challenging for a first-round pick in New York City to be able to join a team that had a strong veteran core and was ready to win. He averaged just 13:53 minutes per night and played at a 31-point pace. Last season was more of the same, but along the way the “Kid Line” solidified itself and once the playoffs rolled around, he was very good. He still played just over 14 minutes per game, but he chipped in 9 points in 20 games and was hitting everything that moved — he was credited with 50 hits in those 20 games, way above his regular pace.

Lafreniere seemed primed for success this season, especially since the Rangers lost key players from their playoff run and didn’t make any moves to replace them. Expected internal promotions. He averages a modest career high in ice-time (15:01). He has played over 164 minutes at 5-on-5 alongside Artemi Panarin already — he played under 45 minutes with him all of last season. While his goal scoring pace is low, the assists and points are high. He’s still just 21 and has really only played one full season in the league. His tools are evident as he does many things that coaches love. He starts by being first on the forecheck. After causing a turnover, he goes to the net and finally deflects a puck home.

He showed glimpses of making high-end plays and scoring big-time goals in the playoffs. I don’t think anyone is writing him off across the league, but it has been a tough start.

Are Kane’s trade plans for Chicago slowing down?

It has been fascinating to watch the conversation around Patrick Kane’s availability on trade markets. In 33 games against a terrible Chicago Blackhawks team, he has only five goals and 25 points this season. He has always struggled defensively, but when he’s throwing up 92 points, as he did just last season, you deal with it. When he’s not producing at a high level, you can’t really stomach these types of efforts — weak along the boards in his own end, gives it away, then is nowhere being in the shooting lane.

There’s a place for a guy like Kane on any hockey team if he’s playing like the true game-breaker he can be. Only Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin have greater total points than Kane among current NHLers. Kane is rather quietly sitting 48th all-time in NHL scoring — 24 away from cracking the top 40. Kane has the playoff experience. Is he a great player on a terrible team or a former superstar in rapid decline? He still seems to have it when the puck touches his stick, if you look at him. He makes no mistakes and gets some space against Columbus.

Last season, he was a player with Alex DeBrincat. He produced impressive numbers. It’s a big drop-off to go from him to Max Domi or Andreas Athanasiou. That’s not forgotten in the equation here. He’s still producing at a reasonable rate and he’s not far removed from a high-end scoring season. His MSG-record three-point performance a few week ago was a reminder that he can still achieve this.

Leafs grateful to Holl for not being lost in the expansion draft

All kinds of interesting decisions were made by the expansion draft. There were many teams that overthought the idea and gave the Golden Knights players that helped them reach the Stanley Cup Final. Seattle wasn’t quite so fortunate.

There were virtually no side deals. Teams simply submitted their expansion requests and let them choose. The Toronto Maple Leafs were the team with the most interesting sequence of events. Two players stood out to them in particular. Justin Holl was one of the candidates to be lost. He had just emerged as a top-four defenseman. As was Alex Kerfoot, a player they did not particularly want to lose for free as the only piece remaining from the Nazem Kadri trade — plus he’s a useful player with some versatility that they value. To protect themselves, they acquired Jared McCann from Pittsburgh — another team facing some interesting decisions — and elected to expose both McCann and Kerfoot, protecting Holl in the process.

McCann was selected, and has been the Kraken’s goal scorer. With 27 goals and 50 goals, he led Seattle scoring. This season, he has scored 16 goals in 30 games, a record for the Kraken. He was the right choice over Kerfoot. The Leafs had to decide if Holl was better than Kerfoot.

Holl has been a bit of a whipping boy in Toronto, but the truth is that he’s a legitimate top-four defenseman. He is now playing more than 22 minutes per game as a shut-down player, largely with Mark Giordano, since Morgan Rielly was hurt on Nov. 21. They have been ahead in terms of scoring chances, expected goals, as well as actual goals. He is playing top-pairing minutes and doing well — for just $2-million per season. You simply can’t find that anywhere on the market. It’s worth twice as much to find defensemen who can handle difficult competition and can take penalties. For a cap strapped team, that’s beyond a luxury. Even with Jared McCann’s palatable $5-million per season extension, it would likely be too pricey for a Leafs team where he wouldn’t sniff the top power play unit when everyone is healthy (he is second on Seattle in power play time per game).

Some sweet, sweet holiday dishes

The area pass is the best pass in the league. A player stops up and passes a puck to their teammates by saucer-passing it. This beautiful pass was created by Barclay Goodrow.

He stops, recognizes his skater and then just saucers it to space. Here’s another courtesy of Tony DeAngelo, just flipping the puck to space on a perfectly timed pass that hits his teammate in stride for a breakaway.

They are often seen for 2-on-1s and power plays. But this is a pure area pass. It’s beautiful. It’s a throwback, with Tomas Kaberle as the main character and Alexei Ponikarovsky as the one-handed Alexei Ponikarovsky.

The World Juniors are an oasis of fresh air

I wanted to close with some notes about the World Juniors. First, it’s great to see the tournament return in full force. It’s a great product and a reminder of how entertaining best-on-best international hockey is. Can’t say it enough: it’s criminal that we haven’t seen this with NHLers recently. It is a shame that we have never seen a team with all of Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, Steven Stamkos, Nathan MacKinnon, and Steven Stamkos on it simultaneously.

The one thing we have missed is the improvement in other countries’ best-on–best competition. Czechia beat Canada for the first time in regulation since 1993 — back when they were still Czechoslovkia. Latvia, which was represented in 2017’s tournament, was 0-4 and outscored 29-6. Moral victories are possible. So far, they lost to the United States 5-2, took Switzerland to a shootout (they were scoring late in regulation to even get there, but they were actually winning), then lost to Finland 3-1. They have participated. They will not repeat the -23 goal differential unless they lose to Slovakia by 16. Switzerland upset Finland. The U.S. lost to Slovakia. This is what the tournament should be all about and it’s great.

International shootouts > NHL shootouts

Five-person shootouts are one thing I love about international hockey. Some will say they don’t like shootouts at all and want them to end as quickly as possible, which, fair enough, I get it. The true essence of hockey is not to end the game with a skill competition. The whole rink can stand if there’s a shootout during a regular season match. Because it is often exciting, people get excited!

A three-person shootout is too quick and there’s not enough strategy involved. You score first, they miss and it’s almost over. Five shooters are available and you have to decide how to distribute them, who is shooting which, etc. This can quickly become very complicated. Pretty much every team has a few stars — you watch the Oilers and McDavid and Draisaitl are shooting. That’s two of three shooters accounted for. There isn’t much to think about. There isn’t much to think about if they are only two of five. This makes it easier for viewers to think strategically and makes the shootout more enjoyable.

More on Sports