CFP Semifinals, December 30, 31, Games
5 best predictions for College Football Playoff Semifinals and other December 30th and 31st games.
5 Best College Football Bowl predictions College Football Playoff, December 30, 31st Games
Expert Picks Dec 28-Jan 2, NY6, CFP
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Bowl Season 8-7
I was about be more insufferable then I already am.
After a tough start to the bowl season it was a good one. My picks for the last round of games were about to be 4-1 against the spread, all I needed was one Minnesota stop in the Pinstripe against Syracuse, I got it, and … 12 men on the field flag, an Orange score on 4th and goal, just like that, I’m back to being just okay.
But in this wacky bowl season I’ll take 60% for that last run. Now it’s time to do better with five to end 2022 on a high note, starting with …
To see a game preview, click on each game
5. Capital One Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs Clemson
Friday, December 30, 2022 at 8:00 ET on ESPN
ATS Line Clemson -6
Pick Tennessee
I’m still not sold on the Clemson secondary.
Tennessee is missing a lot. Clemson is almost an overwhelming touchdown favorite due to this combination. This could be due to the Tiger defensive line, which may explain why losses for a team this talented were so low.
I’m still not sold.
Not to dog Jalin Hyatt or Cedric Tillman in any way, but I do believe Tennessee’s system has as much to do with the success – if not more – than the receivers and the parts in the roles.
I’m going with the idea that Milton can do enough with the returning receivers to hit the Tiger secondary sort of like Sam Hartman and Wake Forest did, sort of like North Carolina’s Drake Maye did – at least in terms of total yards – and sort of like Florida State’s Jordan Travis did.
I do believe that the atmosphere in the Orange Bowl will be great, both teams will trade big offensive punches, and I’m even buying in that Clemson will probably win this.
I’ll take my chances walking into the stadium up 6-0 with the team that’s been through the SEC wars this season.
NEXT: College Football Pick against the Spread No. 4: TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
4. TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs South Carolina
Friday, December 30, 2022, 3:00 ET, ESPN
ATS Line Notre Dame -3.5
Pick Notre Dame
Can Tyler Buchner step up and get Notre Dame’s offense moving? Can it hang shot for shot with a South Carolina offense that closed the year on a roll, and now gets to go against a defense that’s missing its top threat up front in end Isaiah Foskey.
Some of the Irish’s main men are missing. South Carolina is missing nearly everyone.
It’s been dangerous going with the belief that the teams missing the most starters are going to lose. Check that, they’re losing, but they’re covering a bit too often.
I certainly don’t think this will be easy, and having Spencer Rattler around at quarterback is a huge deal. Again, the Gamecock puzzle is too complicated.
Notre Dame won’t do anything fancy, it’ll run, count on at least two takeaways, and get the win … I think.
I’m not putting anything past South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer with time to prepare. He just won’t have the guys to get it done.
NEXT : College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 3: Allstate Sugar Bowl
3. Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Kansas State
Saturday, December 31, 2022 12:00 ET, ESPN
ATS Line Alabama -6.5
Pick Alabama
There are three warnings before you get the riff.
1) As several Kansas State fans keep pointing out, I don’t exactly have the best of track records when it comes to the Wildcats this year. I’m a talent snob who too often underestimated just how rock-solid this team is.
2) I am a talent-snob. I’ll never argue too much against anyone who wants to pick Georgia, or Ohio State, or Alabama for anything. With that said, I’m well aware that …
3) This isn’t one of Nick Saban’s dominant teams – at least at an all-time level – and I do have concerns that the NFL guys who are all supposed to play get yanked out as soon and humanly possible.
But again, no one’s going to blame you for picking Bama.
Nick Saban has lost four bowl matches since 2013. Three of those were College Football Playoff National Championships. One was a College Football Playoff semi-final.
Saban has won 14 bowl matches since the 2009 season. That’s 14 in 13 years, and remember, he lost a few in that span, too. How many of those wins in 13 years were won by more that a touchdown?
13. The one that wasn’t was a 26-23 victory, but Saban can be forgiven for that one. It was only the overtime win over Georgia that secured the 2017 national championship.
None of the 13 winners came close to the 11 and Kyler Murray, a high-powered Oklahoma squad that scored some points in the 2018 CFP Orange Bowl, were the closest.
Until proven otherwise, I’m fine with giving away less than a touchdown.
NEXT: College Football Pick against The Spread No. 2 TransPerfect Music City Bowl
2. TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa vs Kentucky
Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 12:00 ET, ABC
Point Total 31
Pick More
For those of you who regularly read this, I’m sorry for being repetitive. If you’re new here, please note that I am a student who lives by two college football point total rules.
ALWAYS GO LOWER on points totals of 70 or greater. Those of you who enjoyed Oregon’s 28-27 win over North Carolina in your San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl, you’re most welcome.
And ALWAYS go over on a point total of 35 or more, unless it’s Army vs Air Force – long story.
31 is way too loud.
Yeah, okay, Iowa and Kentucky had bad offenses to begin with, and now these bad offenses that can’t afford to miss any key parts are missing their quarterbacks and a few other key parts.
No, I won’t be the slightest bit surprised if this is a 2-1 final in the worst sporting event ever played. But you’re giving me a total of 31. It’s not impossible that one team wins 31-3. It’s not asking for the world for 17-14 and at worst push.
This is how it works. With a college point total of 31, you’ll be more mad if this goes under and you lose than if you stay away and it’s 20-13.
And finally …
NEXT: College Football Pick against The Spread No. 1 College Football Playoff Semifinals: Vrbo fiesta Bowl
1. College Football Playoff Semifinal: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Michigan vs TCU
Saturday, December 31, 2022, 4:00 ET ESPN
ATS Line Michigan -7.5
PICK Michigan
If TCU won, I would love it.
It’s not that I hate Michigan, and all of its Maize and Blue fans, and all the dear friends and family who believe that they beat Ohio State – instead of giving 110% of the credit to the kids and coaches on the field who did all the work. It would be good for the future College Football Playoff if an outlier team pulled it off, even though that meant a 155-3 final score at the national championship.
Unfortunately, the College Football Playoff has seen bad results in eight years.
Washington … no. 24-7 Alabama.
Michigan State … dear heavens, no. 38-0 Alabama, and it wasn’t even that interesting.
Notre Dame … some segment of the Irish fandom thinks being competitive for a half is enough to overcome the final score, but … no. Really, no. 30-3 Clemson, 31-14 Alabama.
Cincinnati … (heavy sigh because we all knew this was coming) … no. 27-6 Alabama, and that’s because Bama was being kind.
It’s not like Michigan has proven itself in the College Football Playoff – it got roasted by Georgia 34-11 last year – but it’s far more established and proven over the last two years than TCU.
All that, and the 24-7 Bama win over Washington in the 2016 Peach – I still have fat cells that will never, ever go away from all the Chick-fil-A and Krispy Kremes I ate in Atlanta that week – was the closest CFP undercard semifinal outside of the Georgia-Oklahoma double-OT Rose Bowl in 2017.
I thought Michigan -17.5 when I first heard about the matchups. I’m being handed an extra ten points to enjoy.
Football-wise, the Michigan lines should win and the defense should prevail in the second half. It’s been my call from the start, and I’m not sliding now.
(BTW, word is that the early line if it’s Georgia – Michigan will be Dawgs -17ish or so.)
Expert Picks Dec 28-Jan 2, NY6, CFP