UFC Fight Night 217: Quick Picks and Prognostications
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today we will be looking at the main event for UFC Fight Night 217.
UFC Fight Night 217 will take place in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex. You can stream the card on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 0-0
Top picks for UFC main events in 2023: 0-0-0
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Umar Nurmagomedov (-900) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+600)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos
Saturday’s main card opens up with a quality bantamweight matchup between [autotag]Umar Nurmagomedov[/autotag] [autotag]Raoni Barcelos[/autotag].
Despite my official pick, the inflated betting lines attached to this fight are outright disrespectful to the chances of Barcelos – who is a quality fighter.
Not only is Barcelos a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with a fully-fledged striking game, but the 35-year-old is also a five-time national wrestling champion (in Brazil) who shows the defensive savvy to stymie a lot of Nurmagomedov’s attacks.
That said, Nurmagomedov’s persistence, cardio and kicking game will likely produce enough output down the stretch to get him a win on the scorecards.
Ketlen Vieira (-125) vs. Raquell Pennington (+105)
Ketlen Vieira vs. Raquel Pennington
The main card will be filled out by a fight between ranked bantamweights. [autotag]Ketlen Vieira[/autotag] [autotag]Raquell Pennington[/autotag].
Although the narrative will tell you that Vieira is title bound, it’s nice to see some respect on the betting lines for Pennington.
For those who’ve been paying attention, Pennington has been having a bit of a late-career renaissance as of late, winning four straight fights. Pennington still shows some susceptibility to counters when she blitzes but she’s ultimately the more skilled striker whether she’s coming forward or fighting off of the counter.
Pennington has also quietly out-striked larger counterparts at the clinch during recent outings. This is key against Vieira, who can be a bit too lackadaisical to my liking. Pennington will be the pick by decision.
Punahele Soriano (-145) vs. Roman Kopylov (-155)
Punahele Soriano vs. Roman Kopylov
A showdown between the two is offered at 185 pounds as an action fight. [autotag]Punahele Soriano[/autotag] [autotag]Roman Kopylov[/autotag].
Despite having an inherent bias toward Xtreme Couture fighters, which I admit to in my work, I ended up supporting Soriano in this spot.
Koplyov is not only 0-1 against UFC-level Lefties (Karl Roberson), but he also showed weaknesses that could be exploited by Soriano.
Showing a propensity to eat left hands and kicks from the power side of southpaws, Kopylov also has a tendency to back himself in between the fence and inner-black octagon lines ––– which happens to be Soriano’s kill zone.
Kopylov’s check hooks will be live for as long as this fight lasts, I just suspect that Soriano takes his head off in the first with another stunning knockout.
Dan Ige (-125) against Damon Jackson (+105).
Damon Jackson vs. Dan Ige
Las Vegas’s co-main event hosts a fun featherweight competition between two participants. [autotag]Dan Ige[/autotag] [autotag]Damon Jackson[/autotag].
Although I have a known bias toward Xtreme Couture, I’m also a big fan of Fortis MMA (whom I awarded as MMA Junkie’s 2022 Gym of the Year).
Jackson, a Texas-based player, has made his Texas-based team proud by his inspirational late-career resurgence. Ige is trying the same after three consecutive losses.
From a defensive perspective, both fighters struggle with similar issues (e.g. body shots and uppercuts), but Ige’s offensive initiative in those departments could make the difference.
Jackson is a skilled grappler who has worked hard to improve his striking. I suspect his shelling nature, which will open up lanes and allow for Ige bodywork or uppercuts, will make Jackson a more formidable grappler. Although a surprise stoppage could be in the cards, I’ll officially take Ige to edge out a decision.
Sean Strickland (+115), against Nassourdine Imavov (135)
ESPN+ will feature an impromptu bout at 205 lbs between middleweights in the main event [autotag]Sean Strickl[/autotag] and [autotag]Nassourdine imavov[/autotag].
As I stated in my in-depth breakdownDespite the brief notice context, this fight is deceptively difficult to call.
Strickland is the more proven product and can be a difficult fighter to deal with over five rounds, especially if you don’t have the cardio and skills to confidently outpace him.
Imavov has shown to flag in past three-round affairs, but he was ultimately the man preparing to fight this Saturday (while Stickland is coming in on a week’s notice after going 25 minutes with Jared Cannonier just last month). For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Imavov to edge out a decision over the American.
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